As the 2025 state and national elections loom large, the long-standing alliance between the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Indian National Congress (INC) appears to be on shaky ground. What was once a powerful partnership in Bihar politics now seems to be gradually fraying at the edges.
The growing tension between the two parties has raised eyebrows, with many questioning the future of their collaboration. While both parties have a long history of working together, the dynamic has shifted considerably in recent years. Let’s delve into the causes of this rift and what it could mean for the political landscape in Bihar and beyond.
Historical Context: RJD and Congress’ Relationship
The RJD and Congress have shared an intricate political history in Bihar, often combining their forces to challenge the dominance of regional rivals, particularly the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In the 1990s, the alliance helped the Congress maintain a foothold in Bihar as RJD emerged as the dominant political force under the leadership of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Over the years, despite differences, the two parties managed to create a united front, with RJD focusing on social justice and Congress aiming for national issues.
However, this cooperation has always been tempered by mutual suspicion. The Congress often feels sidelined by RJD’s charismatic leadership, while the RJD sees Congress as a less assertive partner, which occasionally disrupts the equation. This historical distrust has now started to resurface, threatening the future of their alliance ahead of the 2025 elections.
Factors Behind the Growing Tension
1. Leadership Struggles within Congress
One of the most significant factors contributing to the growing tension between the RJD and Congress is the leadership vacuum within the Congress party in Bihar. The Congress party in the state is undergoing a leadership crisis, with the absence of a clear and influential figurehead. While the RJD has a well-established leadership hierarchy with Lalu Prasad Yadav and his son, Tejashwi Yadav, in the forefront, Congress has struggled to put forth strong leaders capable of leading the opposition against the BJP.
This vacuum has led to the rise of internal factions within the Congress, and its failure to present a unified leadership has left RJD feeling more dominant and confident in the alliance. As the 2025 elections approach, this imbalance could lead to further strains, with the RJD pushing for more significant control over seat-sharing and policy decisions.
2. Seat-Sharing Disputes
The question of seat-sharing for the upcoming elections has been a contentious issue between the two parties. In the past, the Congress has often felt that it is not given a fair share of seats in the alliance, with the RJD taking the lion’s share of contested constituencies. Congress, on the other hand, views itself as a crucial player in the coalition, especially in the wake of its national presence and history.
This dynamic is likely to come into sharper focus as the 2025 elections draw nearer. With both parties eyeing a larger share of political space and influence in the state, their negotiations over seat-sharing are expected to get more heated. Given the shifting electoral trends and increasing competition from other parties like the Janata Dal (United) and the BJP, both the RJD and Congress are expected to press hard for the best possible deal, which could further aggravate their differences.
3. Policy and Ideological Differences
While both the RJD and Congress broadly adhere to progressive and secular ideologies, there are notable policy and ideological differences between the two parties. The RJD, under Lalu Prasad Yadav, has a strong focus on caste-based affirmative action, while Congress, at the national level, has tended to pursue a more inclusive and broad-based approach. These differences are exacerbated in Bihar, where caste-based politics plays a pivotal role.
The RJD has traditionally relied on its core support base from the Yadavs and other backward classes, while Congress has attempted to appeal to a broader electorate. As the RJD focuses on consolidating its base, Congress is looking to broaden its appeal in Bihar, which could result in clashes over policy issues, particularly in the run-up to the elections.
4. National Politics and Strategy
On a larger scale, the changing dynamics of national politics also fuel the tension between the two parties. Rahul Gandhi’s leadership of the Congress has struggled to regain momentum after a series of electoral setbacks. This struggle has raised concerns within the party, prompting a more aggressive pursuit of power and influence at the regional level.
The RJD, meanwhile, has been trying to position itself as a dominant regional player, especially in the context of Bihar, where it hopes to leverage its influence to negotiate better terms with the Congress. As the BJP continues to rise in national prominence, both parties recognize the need for a united front, but their diverging national strategies are creating friction.
The Impact of the RJD-Congress Rift
The intensifying tension between the RJD and Congress is not just a local issue; it has broader implications for Bihar and the national political landscape. If the two parties cannot resolve their differences before the 2025 elections, it could lead to a fragmented opposition, potentially benefiting the BJP.
In Bihar, where caste-based politics plays a critical role, any rift between the two parties could disrupt the opposition’s ability to challenge the BJP. Furthermore, this could lead to a splintering of the vote bank, with Congress and RJD fighting each other for the same constituency, ultimately weakening their chances against the BJP.
Additionally, the growing divide could have an impact on regional parties, especially those that are part of the Grand Alliance, such as the Janata Dal (United). These parties will likely exploit the discord between RJD and Congress, potentially using the rift to carve out their own political space.
Conclusion: Will the RJD-Congress Alliance Survive?
With 2025 fast approaching, the tension between RJD and Congress is expected to intensify, making it unclear whether their alliance will hold. Both parties face growing leadership struggles, seat-sharing disputes, and ideological differences that threaten to push them toward a breaking point. While a united front could offer mutual benefits, division risks weakening the opposition’s chances in the upcoming elections. To have a realistic chance of countering the BJP in Bihar and beyond, the opposition must find a way to reconcile their differences before it’s too late. Effective collaboration is essential for challenging the BJP’s dominance in the region.
The next few months will be crucial in determining whether the RJD and Congress can overcome their growing tensions or if their alliance will fracture before the elections, altering the political landscape in Bihar and India as a whole. The outcome of this delicate balancing act will likely shape the future of Bihar’s political landscape for years to come.
